Bayesians
The Genealogy of the Rev. Thomas Bayes of Probability fame.
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This was a family of Cutlers called Bayes from Sheffield in Yorkshire, England.
They were heavily involved in non-conformism. One family member, Samuel Bayes, was a Church of England vicar at Grendon in Northamptonshire, before he was ejected from his post for his unorthodox religious views.
This Bayes family were very prosperous and from their ranks came at least two 'Master Cutlers' and the originator of what has become to be known as 'Bayesian Probability'.
The Rev. Joshua BAYES (1671-1746)
Born in Sheffield, Yorkshire, an author and eminent Minister in the Presbyterian denomination. He was the son of another Joshua Bayes (c.1638-1703), who one source says was Master Cutler at Sheffield in 1671.
In 1686 he studied theology under Mr. Frankland at Attercliffe (Sheffield), was ordained in 1694 and became the minister at Box Lane, Bovington, Hertfordshire until 1706. The building still exists, (the photo, below right, obtained using Google Earth). No.6 Box Lane is a Grade II listed building, located at Grid Ref. TL037057 and described in the listing thus:
"Reputedly built 1690 on the site of an early C17 chapel. Restored 1876. Used as a Presbyterian chapel, then as Congregational Church. Recently converted into house and given upper floor. Originally 1 storey. Square plan, whitewashed roughcast, tiled roof with central gable, formerly dated on plaque: "Founded 1600, rebuilt 1690, restored 1876". 2 round arched lattice casement windows with pointed arched wood mullions and tracery. Interior: exposed roof truss with purlins converted from 2 columns supporting former ceiling. 1876 pitch pine fittings now removed. VCH, II, p 229."
He became assistant at the Presbyterian Meeting House, St. Thomas Church, Southwark (London) until 1723, when he became Pastor at Leather Lane in London's Hatton Garden. A post in which he continued until his death in 1746. He left an estate of £10,000. This would be the equivalent of being a multi-millionaire in UK currency today.
He was married to Anne Carpenter (1673-1733). they had 7 children, 4 boys and 3 girls:
Thomas (1702-1761) Did not marry
Mary (1704-1780)
John (1705-1743)
Ann (1706-1788) Married Thomas West (c.1704-56)
Samuel (1712-1789) Married Theodosia Collier (c.1721-89)
Rebecca (1717-1799) Married Thomas Cotton (c.1710-97)
Nathaniel (1722-1764)
The Rev. Thomas BAYES F.R.S. (1702 - 1761)
Thomas, the eldest child, was given a 'liberal education for the Ministry'. From 1723 until about 1729 he assisted his Father at Leather Lane. In 1731 he became the Presbyterian Minister at the Meeting House, Mount Sion, Tunbridge Wells in Kent. The photo* (right) shows the plaque outside Bayes' former home at Royal Tunbridge Wells
* I am indebted to Darren Izzard who took the plaque photo and was kind enough to let me use it on this web page.
His biographer, Bellhouse, (see below), suspects that the picture usually shown as Bayes, (above left), may not actually be the Rev. Thomas Bayes!
Thomas Bayes was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society c.1736.
Bayes' paper, (published posthumously in 1763), called 'An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances' is the basis of Bayesian Probability, which is greatly used in computational mathematics today. You will see many, many references to Bayes Theory on the Internet. The consequences of his work are becoming more and more important.
The famous formula is shown, left.
In an artical in the Telegraph Magazine about Bayesian software by Andrew Anthony, entrepreneur Mike Lynch, is quoted as saying:
"Bayes came up with a means of calculating the probability of a future event occurring based on previous events, current conditions and all other known and related factors. In other words, he devised a formula for that most unconcious of skills: human intuition."
Thomas Bayes died unmarried in 1761 and is buried with other members of his family at Bunhill Fields Burial Ground, Moorgate, London, (Grave No. 156 in Section 12).
See my photo, (left), of the tomb which I took when I visited Bunhill on 10th December 2007.
I can recommend an excellent biographical article by J.D.Holland in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1962, pp.451-461.
I have recently discovered a better and more informative biography, (a pdf file), by D.R.Bellhouse.
Descendant Chart of Hugh Bayes
I am indebted to Clare Ash, who found most of this tree data in a book called Familiae Minorum Gentium which appears to relate to Sheffield worthies. It shows the descendants of Hugh Bayes, the Rev. Thomas Bayes' Great-Great-Grandfather.
As a footnote to the Bayesian history, it is interesting to look at the ancestry of an attorney called Thomas Cotton (1709-1797), who married the Rev. Thomas Bayes' sister, Rebecca Bayes.
Cotton had some remarkable ancestors.
His parents were, another Thomas Cotton (1653-1730), a Presbyterian Minister and Bridget Hoar (1673-1723).
The father of this Thomas Cotton was William Cotton, who died in 1675.
He was of a family that were 17th Century Ironmasters, (this is pre industrial revolution technology using charcoal for the process of smelting iron). They had various partnerships with families such as the Spencers, Fownes and the Westbys, in many different smelters, forges and iron mills.
Typically, a particular smelter, forge or mill would be owned by a partnership of a number of investors. This reduced any losses to an individual if the business failed, or when the market was in recession. Like similar iron masters, the Cotton family consolidated these partnerships with marriages. This is the way in which ironmaster families sought, with considerable success, to reduce the proneness of ruin through litigation, which had bedevilled the industry during the 16th and 17th centuries.
The Cotton's interest in the iron industry fell away in the mid 18thC, after the industrial revolution began.
Bridget Hoar (1673-1723) had a noteworthy ancestry.
She was the daughter of Leonard Hoar (1630-1675) and Bridget Lisle (1632-1723).
Leonard Hoar emigrated to the USA from the City of Gloucester in England.
He graduated from Harvard College in 1650, then returned to England working as a preacher.
In 1671 he obtained an MD from Cambridge and in 1672 returned to Massachusetts.
Hoar was chosen to be President of Harvard in 1672. He was unpopular from the outset, (most people wanted and expected someone else to get the job). Eventually, most of the students left. He resigned in 1675 and died the next year.
This picture, (c/o Harvard University Archives), shows Harvard College as it was in 1638-1670.
Bridget Lisle was the daughter of Sir John Lisle (1609-1664) and Alicia Beconshaw (1617-1685).
Sir John Lisle is described as a Regicide, i.e., he was one of those that signed the death warrant of King Charles I in 1649.
Not surprisingly, he decided to live abroad after the Restoration of the Crown in 1660. He went to the shores of Lake Geneva to find refuge with Edmund Ludlow, (whose name was also on the seal of the death warrant of King Charles II).
He had a large price upon his head and was hunted down by an Irish adventurer known as Thomas MacDonnell, who was after the reward. MacDonnell assassinated him, shooting him as he was coming out of church in Lausanne on 11 August, 1664.
His widow, Alicia Lisle had an even more tragic demise.
A fortnight after the Battle of Sedgemore in 1685, she sheltered two people for one night at her home, Moyles Court in Hampshire.
These two men were fugitives that had supported the pretender, the Duke of Monmouth, at the battle during the Duke's unsuccessful quest for the crown. The two men were arrested at Moyles Court the next day, together with Alicia. She was charged with harbouring traitors and tried by the notorious Judge Jeffries at the opening of the Bloody Assizes in Winchester on 25 Aug 1685.
Jeffries ensured that the jury found her guilty and the sentence given was that she be burned to death. (This was still the nominal sentence, at that time, for women found guilty of treason).
This was commuted by King James II to beheading and the execution was duly carried out in Winchester on 2 Sep 1685.
(The refusal of the King to heed pleas for mercy from the death sentence, gave rise to a belief that he was taking a posthumous revenge on Sir John Lisle for the death of his father).
Alicia Lisle was the last woman in English history to be beheaded by judicial sentence.
The Cottons
Jack Bayes here!
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